열화시스템의 수리를 위한 베이지안 의사결정 모형의 개발

Abstract

This paper is intended to develop a Bayesian decision model for the repair of deteriorating system. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity function is used to describe the behavior of the deteriorating repairable system. The decision on whether to have minimal repair or imperfect repair should be made on the occurrence of a failure. However, it is difficult to make a reasonable decision due to many uncertainties intrinsic in repair actions. In this paper, prior distributions are used in order to analyze the uncertainties embedded in the decision alternatives. Especially, a prior distribution for imperfect repair with probabilistic reduction in the failure intensity is proposed. In addition, mathematical expressions to calculate the expected prior loss of each repair alternative are proposed.