Full metadata record
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | 황영진 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-05-07T06:01:31Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2019-05-07T06:01:31Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2017-08 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, v. 36, No. 5, Page. 581-596 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0277-6693 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1099-131X | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/for.2455 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/103516 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The specification choices of vector autoregressions (VARs) in forecasting are often not straightforward, as they are complicated by various factors. To deal with model uncertainty and better utilize multiple VARs, this paper adopts the dynamic model averaging/selection (DMA/DMS) algorithm, in which forecasting models are updated and switch over time in a Bayesian manner. In an empirical application to a pool of Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models whose specifications include level and difference, along with differing lag lengths, we demonstrate that specification-switching VARs are flexible and powerful forecast tools that yield good performance. In particular, they beat the overall best BVAR in most cases and are comparable to or better than the individual best models (for each combination of variable, forecast horizon, and evaluation metrics) for medium-and long-horizon forecasts. We also examine several extensions in which forecast model pools consist of additional individual models in partial differences as well as all level/difference models, and/or time variations in VAR innovations are allowed, and discuss the potential advantages and disadvantages of such specification choices. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en_US | en_US |
dc.publisher | WILEY-BLACKWELL | en_US |
dc.subject | forecasting | en_US |
dc.subject | dynamic model averaging | en_US |
dc.subject | dynamic model selection | en_US |
dc.subject | VAR | en_US |
dc.subject | Bayesian estimation | en_US |
dc.title | Forecasting with Specification-Switching VARs | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.relation.no | 5 | - |
dc.relation.volume | 36 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/for.2455 | - |
dc.relation.page | 581-596 | - |
dc.relation.journal | JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Hwang, Youngjin | - |
dc.relation.code | 2017016173 | - |
dc.sector.campus | E | - |
dc.sector.daehak | COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS[E] | - |
dc.sector.department | DIVISION OF ECONOMICS | - |
dc.identifier.pid | youngjinh | - |
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