불신을 넘어 동반자로?: 러시아와 이란간 전략적 협력의 동인과 전망

Abstract

Since the nineteenth century when Iran(Persia) entered the modern international system the bilateral relations between Russia and Iran had been characterized by the relationship of an imperialist invader with a being invaded. In historical memory of Iranians, consequently, the territorial encroachment on Iran by imperialist Russia has remained a source of feeling deprivation and distrust. Two decades of Russo-Iranian relations after the dissolution of the Soviet Union did little build Iran"s trust to Moscow. In recent years, however, overcoming the historical distrust due to past experiences, Russo-Iranian relationship has started to show the features of strategic cooperation. Would Russo-Iranian strategic cooperation be able to develop into a strategic partnership? This paper aims to analyze the three driving forces - geopolitical, economic, and value and identity factors - stimulating the strategic cooperation, to examine in each case the probability of changing positions and of breaking promises by one party, and, finally, to evaluate the possibility for the two states continuing the strategic cooperation. This study comes to the conclusion that the Russo-Iranian strategic cooperation is likely to continue at least in the medium term.