Assessment of regional drought risk under climate change using bivariate frequency analysis

Title
Assessment of regional drought risk under climate change using bivariate frequency analysis
Author
김태웅
Keywords
Bivariate frequency analysis; Climate change; Drought risk; Water shortage
Issue Date
2018-12
Publisher
SPRINGER
Citation
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT, v. 32, No. 12, Page. 3439-3453
Abstract
Since water supply failure is one of the primary impacts of drought, drought risk should be quantified in the context of a lack of available water. To assess the drought risk, water supply system performance indices such as reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability are usually introduced as they correspond to primary drought characteristics, i.e., frequency, duration, and magnitude. In this study, we developed a drought risk index (DRI) through weighted averaging the performance indices derived using bivariate drought frequency analysis. We suggested two types of DRI: observed DRI (DRI_O) and designed DRI (DRI_D). DRI_O was calculated using an observed (or synthesized) time series of water shortages. DRI_D was estimated from the bivariate drought frequency curves, which are the probabilistic magnitudes of water shortages corresponding to a particular duration. The historical maximum drought event that represents the maximum DRI_O has generally been used as the target security level. However, we could establish a practically applicable target security level considering that the future water supply failure risk is represented by DRI_D. We defined regional drought safety criteria in this study by comparing DRI_O and DRI_D. Application of the criteria to the Nakdong river basin in South Korea showed that W1 (Byeongseongcheon) and W4 (Hyeongsangang) had the lowest and highest drought risk, respectively, and the drought safety criteria showed an average range of 5-20years.
URI
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00477-018-1582-5http://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/99146
ISSN
1436-3240; 1436-3259
DOI
10.1007/s00477-018-1582-5
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES[E](공학대학) > CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING(건설환경공학과) > Articles
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