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Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

Title
Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability
Author
예상욱
Keywords
PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY; INDO-WESTERN PACIFIC; EL-NINO; MODULATION; CLIMATE; OCEAN; MODELS; CMIP5; TELECONNECTIONS; PRECIPITATION
Issue Date
2018-08
Publisher
SPRINGER
Citation
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, v. 50, No. 11-12, Page. 4019-4035
Abstract
El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of similar to 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.
URI
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3859-7http://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/81321
ISSN
0930-7575
DOI
10.1007/s00382-017-3859-7
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF SCIENCE AND CONVERGENCE TECHNOLOGY[E](과학기술융합대학) > MARINE SCIENCE AND CONVERGENCE ENGINEERING(해양융합공학과) > Articles
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