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A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

Title
A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion
Author
이재기
Keywords
Probabilistic risk assessment; expert judgment and opinion; Delphi method; Bayesian inference; tow-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis
Issue Date
2011-02
Publisher
NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Citation
NUCLEAR SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY, Vol. 1, p.471-474 (2011)
Abstract
A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (i) setting prior distributions, (ii) constructing the likelihood functions and (iii) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment).The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA).
URI
http://www.aesj.or.jp/publication/pnst001/data/471.pdfhttp://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/70382
ISSN
2185-4823
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING[S](공과대학) > NUCLEAR ENGINEERING(원자력공학과) > Articles
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