Why Is Russian Energy Policy Failing in Asia?*

Abstract

Russia has tied the success of its efforts to reclaim great power status in Asia to its success in selling China, Japan, and South Korea energy. Consequently energy policy has been tied to defense and security and, for example, defense of energy projects has become a major mission for the navy. But Russia is encountering difficulties. In the Arctic, its new frontier for exploration of energy, much of which will go to East Asia, it faces Chinese political challenges. More broadly, throughout East Asia, and due to its own political and economic failings, it is not able to meet the needs of either South Korea or Japan. As a result, it is forced to rely ever more exclusively on China to help it develop the Russian Far East and export energy. Consequently Russia is falling into a greater dependence on China that contradicts and undermines its great power aspirations in East Asia.