주택경기 순환모형에 관한 연구

Abstract

주택시장은 시대적 흐름에 따라 주택 선호도의 변화, 인구구조의 변화, 금융? 산업환경의 변화 등 다양한 요인에 의하여 변화되고 있다. 주택시장의 변화는 국민경제 및 주거생활에 미치는 파급효과가 클 뿐만 아니라 정부의 부동산 정책 결정에도 중대한 영향을 미친다. 주택시장의 안정화를 위해서는 주택경기의 정확한 진단과 향후 시장변동에 대한 예측을 체계적으로 분석할 필요가 있다. This study examined the applicability of new cycle phase model to explain the housing market in Korea by examining the feasibility of the housing related existing theories, and the factors having effects on decision of the cycle phases of the individual housing market was drawn. First, the regression propensity to the balanced phases(1,5,9 phases) by increase of the volume but balanced phases(1,5,9 phases) was examined. It is assumed that the information search effect is on the housing market in Korea. Second, the balance of the price and volume may be broken due to the conditions of individual markets or the economy condition, and it showed the flow of large oval appearing the cycle of the counterclockwise. Third, in the case of the fluctuation of volume faster than the price fluctuations in the housing market, the cycle phases showed the turning trajectory of the counterclockwise. Fourth, the hive circulation model did not show the feasibility on the domestic housing market. In other words, it is difficult to examine the purchase seed money effect on the housing market in Korea, but it is assumed that there are the loss aversion effects or information search effect on the contraction phase. Finally, the representative factors which have the effects on phase move of the expansion phase and the contraction phases are the unsold, the net population decrease, the migration in cities and provinces, rental price 6-month moving average, per capita wages and economic growth.