A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market
- Title
- A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market
- Author
- 장석권
- Keywords
- Scenarios; Structural change; Telecommunications forecasting; ICT ecosystem; Data traffic
- Issue Date
- 2015-05
- Publisher
- ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
- Citation
- TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, v. 94, Page. 1-20
- Abstract
- Ecosystem forecasting is a challenge for any forecaster since it has a large number of variables, which vary dynamically, tightly coupled with environmental factors under a complex ecosystem architecture. The ecosystem behaves like a complex system as a whole where one variable may serve as a hierarchical pillar to other variables, while others interact with each other in non-linear forms of substitution, complementarity, synergy and externalities. This paper is targeted to develop a profound structured approach to the ecosystem forecasting which combines scenario planning with technological forecasting. Three key planning principles are derived and incorporated into the structured ecosystem forecasting methodology. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the Korean multi-screen service market is analyzed and prospected toward the year 2016. Policy and strategic implications from the structured ecosystem forecasting are also discussed to validate the practicality of the suggested methodology. (C) 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc.
- URI
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514001267http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/24407
- ISSN
- 0040-1625; 1873-5509
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.04.005
- Appears in Collections:
- GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS[S](경영전문대학원) > BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION(경영학과) > Articles
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