A proposal on accuracy estimation method for the sampling-based uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo simulation technique

Title
A proposal on accuracy estimation method for the sampling-based uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo simulation technique
Author
김송현
Keywords
sensitivity and uncertainty analysis; S/U analysis; sampling-based; Monte Carlo; eigenvalue; error propagation; stochastic uncertainty; cross section uncertainty
Issue Date
2015-04
Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
Citation
JOURNAL OF NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Page. 1-7
Abstract
The sampling-based uncertainty analysis method is a stochastic approach to estimate response uncertainties caused by the uncertainty in the input parameters. Conventionally, to minimize the effects caused by the Monte Carlo stochastic uncertainty, lots of particle histories have been used for the uncertainty analysis. However, this can cause inefficiencies in the uncertainty analysis. To optimize the calculation efficiency, how the Monte Carlo stochastic uncertainty influences the response uncertainty should be clearly verified. In this study, a method to estimate the accuracy of the response uncertainty is proposed by introducing a standard error and an error propagation theory. Using the proposed method, response uncertainties and standard errors of the multiplication factors for three benchmark problems are evaluated by the Monte Carlo method. Our results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the accuracy of the response uncertainty caused by the input uncertainty in using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The proposed method can be directly utilized to estimate the accuracy of the sampling-based uncertainty analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Also, it is expected that the proposed method will contribute to an increase in the calculation efficiency in the sampling-based sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.
URI
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00223131.2015.1038665http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/23978
ISSN
0022-3131; 1881-1248
DOI
10.1080/00223131.2015.1038665
Appears in Collections:
RESEARCH INSTITUTE[S](부설연구소) > INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY CENTER FOR RADIATION SAFETY(방사선안전신기술연구소) > Articles
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