기후변화를 고려한 잣나무의 미래 적지적수 변화 예측

Title
기후변화를 고려한 잣나무의 미래 적지적수 변화 예측
Other Titles
Anticipation of the Future Suitable Cultivation Areas for Korean Pines in Korean Peninsula with Climate Change
Author
이상훈
Keywords
SDM; RCP; Maxent; Biodiversity; Korean pine
Issue Date
2015-02
Publisher
한국환경복원기술학회
Citation
한국환경복원녹화기술학회지, v. 18, NO 1, Page. 103-113
Abstract
Korean pines(Pinus koraiensis) are one of the major plantation species in the Republic of Korea and their natural habitats range from Japan and China to Siberia. The seed of Korean pines, pine nuts, are well know for good food reserves. Due to the global changes which drive the Korean peninsula into the semi-tropical climate, current plantations and natural habitats of Korean pines are faced with the change in the environmental conditions to some extent. To anticipate suitable sites for Korean pines in the future, the location of Korean pines were extracted from the ‘Map of suitable trees on a site’ that provides the map of suitable trees on a site considering tree species for timber and special uses, and then MaxEnt modelling was used for generating a prediction map on the basis of statistical analysis. As a result, the order of predicted suitable sites were Kangwon-do, Kyungsangbuk-do and Chungcheongbuk-do provinces and sites with high elevation within those provinces were considered most suitable in common. The prediction map of suitable sites for Korean pines presented that suitable sites in the future decreased by 72.2% by 2050’s and almost disappeared with a decrease of 92.1% by 2070’s on a nationwide scale. In relation to the major production regions of pine nuts in South Korea - Gapyung gun and Yangpyung gun, Kyunggi province and Hongcheon gun, Kangwon province, suitable sites within their areas were predicted to increase by 2050’s but become extinct in South Korea by 2070’s. To establish a long-term countermeasures against the improvement on forest productivity quality in terms of managing national food security, the result from this study can be considered as a firm basis of predicting plantation suitability. Also, it can be used to predict the changes in supply of forest products and thereby market values in accordance with climate change scenarios.
URI
http://kiss.kstudy.com/journal/thesis_name.asp?tname=kiss2002&key=3301872http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/22265
ISSN
1229-3032
DOI
10.13087/kosert.2015.18.1.103
Appears in Collections:
GRADUATE SCHOOL OF URBAN STUDIES[S](도시대학원) > ETC
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Export
RIS (EndNote)
XLS (Excel)
XML


qrcode

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

BROWSE