일변량 시계열 모형 비교를 통한 독도관광 수요예측

Title
일변량 시계열 모형 비교를 통한 독도관광 수요예측
Other Titles
Demand Forecasting of Dok-do Tourism using Comparison of Univariate Time Series
Authors
정철
Keywords
수요예측(Demand Forecast); 시계열(Time series); 도서관광(Island Tourism); 계절모형(Seasonal ARIMA model); 독도관광(Dok-do tourism)
Issue Date
2015-02
Publisher
(사)한국관광레저학회
Citation
관광레저연구, v. 27, NO 2, Page. 59-77
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to find out the method appropriate for the forecasting of traveler demand using time series model and efficient operation in Dok-do office. Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from Apr. 2005 to Mar. 2013. A total of 96 observations were used for data analysis. Research findings showed that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,11)(1,1,0)12 model was the most appropriate among models. The number of traveler in Dok-do was expected to continually rise and surpass 25 million in 2015. Based on the predictive results of time series model, the improvement issues and suggestions of Dok-do tour are as following: Firstly, in order to maintain the Dok-do traveler, we need to improve coastal ferry route and facilities. Secondly, in order to expand the tourism revenue by maintaining the Dok-do traveler demands, it is necessary to carry out policies to maintain and develop Dok-do tourism products.
URI
http://www.dbpia.co.kr/Journal/ArticleDetail/NODE06229287http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/22006
ISSN
1229-0424
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES[S](사회과학대학) > TOURISM SCIENCE(관광학부) > Articles
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