Estimating the Effects of the US-China Trade War on U.S. Manufacturing Imports:

Abstract

n this paper, I will use the Regression Discontinuity Design method to study the impact of the US-China trade war on US manufacturing. To study whether U.S. manufacturing imports from China and FTA countries have changed after the shock of the US-China trade war, and what impact has this had on US manufacturing. Taking the start of the US-China trade war as the breakpoint, use the data on US manufacturing imports from China and FTA countries to study whether the US has shifted trade to other countries especially the FTA countries with which it cooperated after the trade war.