접근성을 반영한 대도시 통행발생 및 주거입지 패턴

Abstract

교통공급과 교통수요 간의 교통체계 내 상호작용의 결과적 현상으로서 접근성 정도가 결정되며, 이와 같은 접근성은 효율적인 활동을 위한 입지 선택에 영향을 주면서 토지이용 변화를 가져오게 하는 요인이 되므로 결국 접근성은 교통체계와 토지이용체계 변화의 중요한 연결고리라고 할 수 있다. 따라서 접근성 변화에 따른 효과는 교통수요와 토지이용 두 가지 측면에서 검토되어야 할 것이다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 두 가지 측면에서 접근성 변화에 의한 파급효과를 분석하고자 하였다. 교통수요 측면에서 새로운 교통시설 건설, 확장 및 운영개선 등으로 인한 접근성의 변화는 장·단기적으로 다양한 형태의 수요 변화를 가져온다. 기존에 존재하던 통행수요는 경로(Path), 교통수단(Mode), 출발 시각, 혹은 통행목적지 등이 전환되는 형태로 변화하고, 기존 수요와 관계없이 신규로 추가 발생되는 순 유발수요(Net Induced Demand)가 발생하기도 한다. 이러한 순 유발수요(Net Induced Demand)는 통행발생단계에서 분석되어야 하지만 기존에 일반적으로 적용되고 있는 실무적 정책평가에서 교통시설투자 평가 방법에서는 통행발생단계에서 접근성 변화를 반영할 수 있는 모형을 적용하지 않고, 다만 경로(Path), 수단(Mode) 등이 전환되는 전환(Diverted) 수요에 국한하여 분석하고 있다. 토지이용 측면에서 접근성 변화는 시설 입지를 변화시킨다. 전통적인 입지이론에서 접근성은 입지 결정의 매우 중요한 변수로 이용된다. Alonso는 단일 핵 도시에서 주택지 입지 원리를 주거비용(지가)와 교통비용의 상호보상관계(trade-off)를 가지고 토지이용 패턴을 설명하기도 하였다. 이후 교통 접근성이 토지이용에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구가 많이 있었으나, 개략적인 접근성 추정과 이에 관한 상관관계 분석에 국한되어 실증적 연구는 부족하였던 것으로 고려된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 접근성을 중심으로 교통수요와 토지이용 측면에서 변화를 구체적이고 실증적 차원에서 분석하고자 하였다. 첫째, 활동 및 통행을 결정하는데 영향을 주는 접근성 지표가 통행목적별로 차이가 난다는 가설적 논리를 실증적 자료를 가지고 증명하고자 하였으며, 둘째, 추정된 접근성 지표와 가구단위의 통행발생량과의 상관관계를 통행발생 모형 정산에 의해 관계성을 통계적으로 증명하고, 이와 같은 접근성 지표가 통행목적별로 순 유발수요 발생량에 다르게 영향을 미치고 있음을 실증자료를 통한 통계적 검증을 수행하고자 하였다. 마지막으로 추정된 각 입지별 접근성 지표와 토지이용 패턴과의 상관관계 분석을 통해 접근성이 토지이용 패턴변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하되 토지이용 정책에 핵심 주제인 주거지 선택을 중심으로 검토하였다. 분석결과 접근성 지표가 통행목적별로 존의 특징을 잘 설명하고 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 접근성 지표를 반영한 통행발생 모형 구축 결과 선택적 통행(Optional trip)에 해당되는 가정기반 쇼핑통행(HBSH)과 가정기반 기타통행(HBO)은 접근성 변화에 따라 순 유발수요(Net Induced Demand)가 발생하고, 가정기반 통근통행(HBW)은 주거지 이동에 영향을 미치나 가정기반 통학통행(HBSC)과 가정기반 학원통행(HBAC)은 접근성 변화와 관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 접근성 지표를 반영한 가구단위 통행발생 모형에서 특정 목적통행의 접근성 지표 계수값이 비논리적 부호(-) 도출되는 문제점도 발견하였으나, 국제적 연구에서도 보고되는 분석 내용으로 본 연구에서는 분석자료 수준 차이로 규명하고, 분석자료 수준을 일치할 경우 비논리성을 갖는 접근성이 통계적으로 무의미하게 될 수 있음을 설명하였다. 접근성 지표가 주거지 선택에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과 주거밀도(세대수/㎢)는 모든 통행목적의 접근성과 상관관계가 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 학원 목적, 통학 목적의 접근성과의 상관계수가 높은 것으로 분석되었는데, 발생빈도가 높은 통행목적의 접근성이 더 관련이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 주거밀도(세대수/㎢)가 여러 가지 제약조건에 의한 주거지 선택의 결과라 한다면 주거지 가격은 이용자의 선호도와 관계가 있다고 할 수 있다. 분석결과 접근성 지표가 매매가에는 영향을 미치지 못하지만 전세가에는 통계적으로 유의한 수준의 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 전세가와 접근성의 상관관계 분석결과 필수적 통행(Mandatory trip)의 접근성은 통계적으로 유의한 결과를 나타내는 반면 선택적 통행(Optional trip)의 접근성은 통계적으로 유의하지 못한 것으로 나타났다. 전세가는 실거주를 목적으로 시세가 형성되기 때문에 전세가는 주거 선호도를 잘 설명하는 변수라 할 수 있다. 이러한 결과는 신도시 설계 등과 같은 도시계획을 하는데 기초자료로 활용할 수 있으며, 통행발생 모형에 접근성 변화를 반영하는 새로운 모형을 제시함으로써 기존 교통시설투자 평가에서 적용하지 못하고 있는 다양한 수요변화를 반영하여 평가의 신뢰성을 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.|Accessibility level is decided by the result of change process in mutual transportation system between supply and demand of transportation. This accessibility influences location choice for efficient activity and causes change in land usage. Therefore accessibility is important link between changes of transportation system and land usage. Accordingly, the effect of accessibility change must be examined in two aspects of transportation demand and land usage. This research aimed to analyze ripple effect of accessibility change in these two aspects. In the aspect of transportation demand, accessibility change by construction, expansion and operation improvement of transportation system causes various types of demand change in the long and short term. Existing transportation demand is altered in the form of diversion in transportation path, transportation mode, departure time of trip destination. And also newly added Net Induced Demand is generated regardless of existing demand. This Net Induced Demand must be analyzed at the stage of trip generation. But in the existing general operational policy evaluation, the model that can reflect accessibility change at the stage of trip generation is not applied to evaluation method of investment in transportation system. Instead, it is analyzed only by diverted demand that Path, Mode, etc. are diverted. In the aspect of land usage, accessibility change causes alteration of land location. In traditional location theory, accessibility is uses as important variables for location decision. Alonso once explained the principle of residential section by the pattern of land usage through mutual trade-off between housing cost and transportation cost. Since then, there have been a lot of researches on effect of transportation accessibility on land usage, broad accessibility assumption and analysis of correlation between them. But it is thought that empirical research was insufficient. Therefore, this research aimed to analyze changes in land usage and transportation demand in specific and empirical basis, focusing on accessibility. First, this study, with empirical materials, tried to prove hypothetical logic that accessibility indicator, influencing decision on activity and trip, has differences by trip purposes. Second, this research aimed to prove statistically correlation between assumed accessibility indicator and household-based trip generation rate by calculating trip generation model. And also, with empirical materials, this research tried to verify statistically different effects of this accessibility indicator on Net Induced Demand depending on trip purposes. Finally, the effect of accessibility on change in land usage pattern was examined through correlation analysis between assumed each accessibility indicator and land usage pattern per location. It was examined focusing on dwelling choice, core issue in land usage polity. The result of analysis showed that accessibility indicator gave good explanation about characteristic of zone depending on trip purpose. Also it was confirmed that according to result of model construct for trip generation reflecting accessibility indicator, trip for home-based shopping(HBSH) and trip for home-based others(HBO), relevant to Optional Trip, generated Net Induced Demand by accessibility change. And trip for home-based work(HBW) influenced dwelling movement but trip for home-based school commuting(HBSC) and trip for home-based academy commuting(HBAC) had nothing to do with accessibility change. Also, in the model for trip generation per household, reflecting accessibility indicator, indicator modulus for certain purpose trip showed illogical sign(-). But with analysis by international research, this research founded that it was from level difference of analysis materials. And explained that in the case that analysis materials are the same in level, illogical accessibility can be meaningless statistically. According to the result of analysis of effect of accessibility indicator on dwelling choice, dwelling density(household number/㎢) showed high correlation with accessibility of trip purpose. Especially, it had high correlation modulus with accessibility of purpose for academy and school commuting. Higher correlation was produced in accessibility of trip purpose with high generation frequency. While dwelling density(household number/㎢) is the result of dwelling choice by different constraint conditions, dwelling price is related to users' preference. The result of analysis showed that accessibility indicator did not have an effect on sale price but had a significant effect on rental price in statistics. According to result of analysis of correlation between rental price and accessibility, Mandatory Trip accessibility showed significant result in statistics. But Optional Trip accessibility was not significant in statistics. Rental price can be good indicator for explanation about dwelling preference because rental price is formed for the purpose of actual dwelling. This result can be used as basic materials for city planning like new town planning etc. And also this can present new model reflecting accessibility change in trip generation model. Thus, it is expected that evaluation reliability can be improved by reflecting variable demand change which is not applied to existing evaluation of investment in transportation system.; Accessibility level is decided by the result of change process in mutual transportation system between supply and demand of transportation. This accessibility influences location choice for efficient activity and causes change in land usage. Therefore accessibility is important link between changes of transportation system and land usage. Accordingly, the effect of accessibility change must be examined in two aspects of transportation demand and land usage. This research aimed to analyze ripple effect of accessibility change in these two aspects. In the aspect of transportation demand, accessibility change by construction, expansion and operation improvement of transportation system causes various types of demand change in the long and short term. Existing transportation demand is altered in the form of diversion in transportation path, transportation mode, departure time of trip destination. And also newly added Net Induced Demand is generated regardless of existing demand. This Net Induced Demand must be analyzed at the stage of trip generation. But in the existing general operational policy evaluation, the model that can reflect accessibility change at the stage of trip generation is not applied to evaluation method of investment in transportation system. Instead, it is analyzed only by diverted demand that Path, Mode, etc. are diverted. In the aspect of land usage, accessibility change causes alteration of land location. In traditional location theory, accessibility is uses as important variables for location decision. Alonso once explained the principle of residential section by the pattern of land usage through mutual trade-off between housing cost and transportation cost. Since then, there have been a lot of researches on effect of transportation accessibility on land usage, broad accessibility assumption and analysis of correlation between them. But it is thought that empirical research was insufficient. Therefore, this research aimed to analyze changes in land usage and transportation demand in specific and empirical basis, focusing on accessibility. First, this study, with empirical materials, tried to prove hypothetical logic that accessibility indicator, influencing decision on activity and trip, has differences by trip purposes. Second, this research aimed to prove statistically correlation between assumed accessibility indicator and household-based trip generation rate by calculating trip generation model. And also, with empirical materials, this research tried to verify statistically different effects of this accessibility indicator on Net Induced Demand depending on trip purposes. Finally, the effect of accessibility on change in land usage pattern was examined through correlation analysis between assumed each accessibility indicator and land usage pattern per location. It was examined focusing on dwelling choice, core issue in land usage polity. The result of analysis showed that accessibility indicator gave good explanation about characteristic of zone depending on trip purpose. Also it was confirmed that according to result of model construct for trip generation reflecting accessibility indicator, trip for home-based shopping(HBSH) and trip for home-based others(HBO), relevant to Optional Trip, generated Net Induced Demand by accessibility change. And trip for home-based work(HBW) influenced dwelling movement but trip for home-based school commuting(HBSC) and trip for home-based academy commuting(HBAC) had nothing to do with accessibility change. Also, in the model for trip generation per household, reflecting accessibility indicator, indicator modulus for certain purpose trip showed illogical sign(-). But with analysis by international research, this research founded that it was from level difference of analysis materials. And explained that in the case that analysis materials are the same in level, illogical accessibility can be meaningless statistically. According to the result of analysis of effect of accessibility indicator on dwelling choice, dwelling density(household number/㎢) showed high correlation with accessibility of trip purpose. Especially, it had high correlation modulus with accessibility of purpose for academy and school commuting. Higher correlation was produced in accessibility of trip purpose with high generation frequency. While dwelling density(household number/㎢) is the result of dwelling choice by different constraint conditions, dwelling price is related to users' preference. The result of analysis showed that accessibility indicator did not have an effect on sale price but had a significant effect on rental price in statistics. According to result of analysis of correlation between rental price and accessibility, Mandatory Trip accessibility showed significant result in statistics. But Optional Trip accessibility was not significant in statistics. Rental price can be good indicator for explanation about dwelling preference because rental price is formed for the purpose of actual dwelling. This result can be used as basic materials for city planning like new town planning etc. And also this can present new model reflecting accessibility change in trip generation model. Thus, it is expected that evaluation reliability can be improved by reflecting variable demand change which is not applied to existing evaluation of investment in transportation system.