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개발도상국 민자발전사업 개발단계 리스크 경감 방안

Title
개발도상국 민자발전사업 개발단계 리스크 경감 방안
Other Titles
Risk Mitigation during the Development Phase of Independent Power Producer in Developing Countries
Author
윤영일
Advisor(s)
여영구
Issue Date
2012-08
Publisher
한양대학교
Degree
Master
Abstract
본 연구에서는 개발도상국 민자발전사업의 개발단계에서 발생할 수 있는 리스크를 사업소재국, 사업주 및 시장으로 분류하여 해당 항목별 주요 리스크와 일반적인 경감방법 등에 대해 조사하고, 근래 한전 및 발전회사가 수행한 대표적인 3개 사업에 적용하여 구체적인 경감방안을 도출하고자 하였다. 사례연구 대상은 발전유형 및 용량, 시행시기, 사업방식 등이 상이하여 대표성이 있는 한국서부발전이 수행 중인 라오스 세남노이 수력발전사업(410 MW), 한국전력공사가 수행한 필리핀 일리한 가스복합발전사업(1,276 MW), 한국중부발전이 수행한 인도네시아 찌레본 석탄화력발전사업(660 MW)을 선정하였으며, 사례연구를 통해 공통된 리스크 경감방법, 발전원별 특징과 추가적 고려사항을 연구하였다. 개발도상국에서 민자발전사업 추진시 라오스와 같이 정치․ 경제적으로 안정화 되지 않고 전력구매처로서 신용이 부족하여 수출신용기관과 국제개발금융기구의 사업 참여가 어려운 경우, 국가신용이 양호한 주변국으로 전력판매처를 다변화하여 시장 리스크를 경감시키는 동시에 사업소재국 리스크를 경감시켜야 한다. 또한, 20~30년에 걸쳐 장기간 운영해야 하는 석탄화력 및 가스복합 발전사업의 경우 운영기간이 경과 할수록 열효율도 저하되는 것을 감안하여, 설비운영 경과에 따른 성능저하 영향을 충분히 반영하여 기대수익을 보존하고 개발도상국 민자발전사업에 참여하는 우리기업의 손실을 최소화해야 한다. |This study investigates the risks that can occur during the development stage of IPP project in developing countries and classifies the risks by the countries, sponsors and markets to derive major risks and general risk mitigation methods. Since many developing countries are politically and economically unstable, a country risk is the biggest problem for most IPP projects. In case of ECA and MLA cannot participate due to poor credit rating of the country, the diversification of power purchaser in marginal states can be a great help to reduce both market risk and country risk at the same time. Also, it is necessary that the variability of the profit is managed by sponsors, because the operation of IPP takes a long time from 20 to 30 years. In case of thermal power plants and combined cycle power plants, the effect of performance degradation as time passed will be considered and expected profit of sponsors should be maintained. Recently, developing countries are expanding IPP projects to reduce the financing cost and Korean construction and power companies are positively participating in IPP projects in accordance with this situation. Accordingly, the loss of Korean companies should be minimized by risk management through the risk mitigation methods of this study.; This study investigates the risks that can occur during the development stage of IPP project in developing countries and classifies the risks by the countries, sponsors and markets to derive major risks and general risk mitigation methods. Since many developing countries are politically and economically unstable, a country risk is the biggest problem for most IPP projects. In case of ECA and MLA cannot participate due to poor credit rating of the country, the diversification of power purchaser in marginal states can be a great help to reduce both market risk and country risk at the same time. Also, it is necessary that the variability of the profit is managed by sponsors, because the operation of IPP takes a long time from 20 to 30 years. In case of thermal power plants and combined cycle power plants, the effect of performance degradation as time passed will be considered and expected profit of sponsors should be maintained. Recently, developing countries are expanding IPP projects to reduce the financing cost and Korean construction and power companies are positively participating in IPP projects in accordance with this situation. Accordingly, the loss of Korean companies should be minimized by risk management through the risk mitigation methods of this study.
URI
https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/136016http://hanyang.dcollection.net/common/orgView/200000419993
Appears in Collections:
GRADUATE SCHOOL[S](대학원) > POWER ENGINEERING(파워엔지니어링공학과) > Theses (Master)
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