산업구조분석을 통한 국가별 산업고령화지수 모델 개발

Abstract

전 세계적으로 많은 나라가 보건 의료기술의 발달로 평균수명이 연장되고 출산율이 급격히 감소함에 따라서 전체인구에서 노인이 차지하는 비율이 급격하게 증가하고 있다. 우리나라는 전 세계적으로 비교 되지 않을 정도로 빠른 속도로 인구가 고령화되고 있다. 2000년에 고령화 사회로 진입했으며 2020년에는 고령사회, 2026년에는 초 고령 사회가 될 전망이다. 인구의 고령화는 노인 당사자뿐 아니라 전체사회가 직면하는 사회문제이다. 고령화 사회에서 노인은 고독, 빈곤, 질병 등으로 어려움을 겪게 되고, 사회는 사회적으로 보호하고 경제적으로 지원해야 할 급격한 노인인구 비율의 증가로 인해 의료비 증가, 연금고갈, 노동인력 감소, 사회복지서비스 대상 및 비용의 증가 등의 문제를 안게 된다. 이런 상황에서 국가경쟁력을 파악하는 모델로는 고령화 지수나 노인인구비율 같은 인구를 대상으로 한 지표를 사용하고 있으나 이는 선진국이면 무조건 높게 나오고, 고령화 지수는 높으나 경제성장률이 상승하는 독일 같은 경우를 설명하지 못하는 문제를 가지고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 인구 측면이 아닌 산업 측면에서 국가의 고령화 상황을 설명할 수 있는 지표를 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위해 산업구조를 현 상황에 맞추어서 재분류하고, 각 산업의 가중치를 부여해서 국가경쟁력을 판단하는 국가 산업 고령화 지수를 제시하려고 한다. 산업 고령화 지수는 국가들의 실제 자연연령과 비교함으로써 고령화 현상을 겪고 있는 국가의 현 상황을 설명하는 하나의 의미 있는 지표로써 사용 될 수 있을 것이다.| For world widely, the average life span extended because of the development of health care technology and the birth rate decreased, the portion of the old population has been being increased in very rapid. Korea is the fastest nation increasing the old population in the world. Year 2000 Korea started to face Aging-society, predicting, year 2020 being Aged-society, 2026 being post-aged society. Aging-society issue is not only related with the olds themselves, but also related with whole society. In Aging-society the old need to struggle with loneness, poverty, disease, and etc, and society needs to deal with medical expense, the drain on pension from government, shrinking work forth, and the increasing cost raised by the extension of social welfare. In this context, Aging-index and the old population rate are used to evaluate The National competitiveness. By the way the competitiveness of the advanced nation is highly marked. And also it can’t explain why German has increased the economy growth rate in spite of having a high aging-index. Therefore this research intends to suggest other index that can explain the aging of nation which is not respect of population, but industry. To do so, we need to re-categorize the industrial structure in current situation, adding extra point based upon industrial situation, and are going to suggest The Industry Aging Index which can evaluate nation’s competitiveness more accurately. It’s expected that The Industry Aging Index will be a meaningful index that can explain the current situation of nations struggling with aging-society by using through comparing with natural age.; For world widely, the average life span extended because of the development of health care technology and the birth rate decreased, the portion of the old population has been being increased in very rapid. Korea is the fastest nation increasing the old population in the world. Year 2000 Korea started to face Aging-society, predicting, year 2020 being Aged-society, 2026 being post-aged society. Aging-society issue is not only related with the olds themselves, but also related with whole society. In Aging-society the old need to struggle with loneness, poverty, disease, and etc, and society needs to deal with medical expense, the drain on pension from government, shrinking work forth, and the increasing cost raised by the extension of social welfare. In this context, Aging-index and the old population rate are used to evaluate The National competitiveness. By the way the competitiveness of the advanced nation is highly marked. And also it can’t explain why German has increased the economy growth rate in spite of having a high aging-index. Therefore this research intends to suggest other index that can explain the aging of nation which is not respect of population, but industry. To do so, we need to re-categorize the industrial structure in current situation, adding extra point based upon industrial situation, and are going to suggest The Industry Aging Index which can evaluate nation’s competitiveness more accurately. It’s expected that The Industry Aging Index will be a meaningful index that can explain the current situation of nations struggling with aging-society by using through comparing with natural age.