도시환경정비사업 집행 지연요인의 인과성 분석

Abstract

본 연구는 정비사업 유형 중 도시환경정비사업을 대상으로 사업 집행을 지연시키는 요인들이 무엇인지에 도출하고, 여러 요인들 가운데 사업지연에 보다 큰 영향을 미치는 요인과 인과관계에 대해 연구하였다. 다수의 도시환경정비사업이 토지등소유자방식으로 사업이 추진된다는 점에서 토지등소유자방식으로 추진되는 도시환경정비사업을 연구대상으로 하였으며 서울지역을 대상으로 연구를 진행하였다. 연구방법은 첫째, 도시환경정비사업 집행 지연요인 도출 및 상위·하위 계층화 분류, 둘째, AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)를 활용한 도시환경정비사업 지연요인의 구조분석, 셋째, DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory)을 활용한 주요 지연요인들 간 인과성 분석을 실시하였다. 도시환경정비사업의 주요 집행 지연요인 분석결과, 사업주체간 갈등, 법·제도, 행정절차(서비스), 사업성, 사업시행 등 5개 분야 20개의 지연요인을 도출하였다. 그 가운데 사업시행자의 불투명한 사업 추진, 소유자 이해부족 갈등, 소유자 보상가 불만족, 세입자 갈등, 관련 수립계획 및 인가오류, 경기 침체에 따른 사업성 저하, 수요 변화, 사업성에 대한 불확실성, 사업계획 변동, 사업시행자의 미약한 공신력 등 10개 요인들이 토지등소유자방식 도시환경정비사업의 집행 지연에 미치는 영향이 다른 요인들에 비해 큰 요인으로 분석되었다. 이상 주요 지연요인으로 도출된 10개의 요인들을 대상으로 DEMATEL분석을 통해 인과성 분석을 실시하였으며, 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 도시환경정비사업의 집행 지연요인으로써 가장 주요한 원인이 되는 요인은 경기 침체에 따른 사업성 저하로 나타났으며, 그 다음으로 관련 수립계획 및 인가오류, 소유자 이해부족 갈등, 사업시행자의 불투명한 사업 추진, 소유자, 보상가 불만족 등의 순으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 피영향도 분석결과, 사업에 대한 불확실성이 가장 높은 인과점수를 보였고, 소유자 이해부족 갈등 2순위, 경기침체에 따른 사업성 저하 3순위, 사업계획 변동 4순위, 세입자 갈등 5순위로 나타났다. 이들 지연요인들은 여러 요인들에게 영향을 받는 결과적 성격이 강한 요인들이다. 셋째, 종합강도 분석결과, 경기 침체에 따른 사업성 저하, 소유자 이해부족 갈등, 사업성에 대한 불확실성 등 3개 요인들의 인과점수가 다른 7개의 지연요인들에 비해 높게 나타났다. 넷째, 원인도 분석결과, 관련계획 수립 오류가 가장 중요한 원인적 성격을 갖는 것으로 분석되었다. 이어 사업시행자의 불투명한 사업추진이 2순위, 소유자 보상가 불만족이 3순위, 경기침체에 따른 사업성 저하가 4순위, 소유자 이해부족 갈등이 5순위, 사업시행자의 미약한 공신력이 6순위로 나타났다. 이들 지연요인들은 다른 지연요인들의 발생시키는 원인적 성격이 강한 요인들이다. 최종적으로 사업 지연요인의 인과성 유향그래프 분석 결과, 도시환경정비사업의 집행 지연구조는 관련계획 수립 오류, 사업시행자의 불투명한 사업추진, 소유자 보상가 불만족, 경기침체에 따른 사업성 저하, 소유자 이해부족 갈등, 사업시행자의 미약한 공신력이 원인이 되어, 사업성에 대한 불확실성, 사업계획 변동, 세입자 갈등, 수요변화 등의 또 다른 지연요인을 발생시키는 형태로 나타나는 것을 알 수 있었다.|The major purpose of this research is investigating the delay factors of the project process focused on urban environmental improvement project out of the renewal plans and then it attempted to find causation between them. The main motivation to choose the subject in the assessment was that currently massive number of renewal frameworks for urban environment is established by property owner-led development and the study was based on Seoul in South Korea. There were three ways of research methods consequently it begun to explore the delay factors while the urban environmental improvement are enforced project and it classified their upper-lower hierarchy. Next, it analyzed the structure of these delay factors through AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) after then it was evaluated the causal relationship with the major delay factors by DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory). According to the research result, there were 20 delay factors in 5 categories such as conflicts between its own organizations, law and policies, public service process, project profitability and strategy enforcement. Moreover, it examined several most important factors influence on delaying urban environmental renewal project related with the business profitability; uncertain project plan, lack of understanding of property owners, compensation payment dissatisfaction, problems with tenants, authorization errors and the linked improvement framework, lack of the project’s potential ability followed by the economic crisis, fluctuated demand trends, business uncertainty, changing the renewal strategy and feeble public confidence of the executives. Move on to the causation analysis using DEMATEL, the research was represented against these 10 factors above and the result is below, First of all, the most essential cause as the delay factor was the decline of project implementation associated with economic recession and then the following factors in order were authorization errors and the linked improvement framework, problems as poor understanding of property owners, feeble public confidence of the executives and property occupiers’ compensation payment dissatisfaction. Second, it was the outcome of the affectedness rate that business uncertainty was the top-ranked causational element and the following factors in sequential order were lack of consideration for property owners, scheme feasibility caused by economic slump, changing project plans and trouble with the tenant. Resultingly those delay factors were come passive characters by the others. As the analytical result of the total rate, lack of the project’s certainty followed by the economic crisis, weak possibility of the project and problems related with the occupiers’ poor understanding were higher than another 7 factors. Fourth, the linked improvement strategy error was the most significant factor when it evaluated the causational rate. After then unclear project implementation, compensation payment dissatisfaction, scheme feasibility caused by economic slump, trouble with the property owners as a lack of understanding and feeble public confidence of the executives. Those delay factors were more basic causes compared with the others. Finally it investigated the analysis using directed graph and it represented that there was the causational relationship between the delay factors within the enforcement structure of the urban environment renewal project. Hence the project feasibility, changing project plans, problems with their tenants and fluctuated demand trend occurred because it was effected by authorization and improvement framework errors, project feasibility, compensation payment dissatisfaction, less possibility of the scheme due to economic slump, poor consideration of property occupiers and lack of public confidence as the executives.; The major purpose of this research is investigating the delay factors of the project process focused on urban environmental improvement project out of the renewal plans and then it attempted to find causation between them. The main motivation to choose the subject in the assessment was that currently massive number of renewal frameworks for urban environment is established by property owner-led development and the study was based on Seoul in South Korea. There were three ways of research methods consequently it begun to explore the delay factors while the urban environmental improvement are enforced project and it classified their upper-lower hierarchy. Next, it analyzed the structure of these delay factors through AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) after then it was evaluated the causal relationship with the major delay factors by DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory). According to the research result, there were 20 delay factors in 5 categories such as conflicts between its own organizations, law and policies, public service process, project profitability and strategy enforcement. Moreover, it examined several most important factors influence on delaying urban environmental renewal project related with the business profitability