비전통가스 개발현장에서의 친환경적운영관리 서비스기술발전에 따른 경제성분석 연구

Abstract

천연가스는 석유 및 석탄과 함께 세계 3대로 에너지자원의 하나로 풍부한 매장량, 친환경 연료로서의 사용편의성 등이 부각되면서 에너지 자원으로의 차지하는 비중이 꾸준히 높아지고 있고 향후에도 에너지원으로서의 수요의 증가나 일차에너지믹스에서 차지하는 비중은 더욱 확대될 것이다. 정부의 제4차 해외자원개발 기본계획은 2019년에 천연가스 자주개발율을 45%까지 달성하고 공급량 목표는 39천톤/일로 전망한다. 이러한 정부의 에너지 자주개발 증대를 위한 해외 자원개발 투자 확대에 따라 KOGAS 뿐만 아니라 SK E&S, KEPCO, POSCO 등과 같은 국내 민간 에너지기업들은 보다 안정적인 에너지 수급구조 확보를 위해 해외 가스자원 확보를 위한 비전통자원 E&P사업이 확대하고 있다.

셰일가스와 같은 비전통가스는 현재 누구도 부인하지 못하는 세계적인 차세대 청정에너지로 각광을 받고 있다. 넘쳐나는 셰일가스 개발로부터 파생되는 배관, 플랜트, 운송 등의 인프라 산업의 성장뿐만 아니라, 셰일가스를 이용한 화학산업은 기존의 석유화학산업의 흐름까지 바꾸어 놓고 있다. 그러나 한편으로 셰일가스개발은 셰일층의 지질학적 특성과 독특한 회수방식에서 파생되는 환경적인 부작용에 대한 우려의 목소리가 날로 커져가고 있기도 하다. 에너지원으로서의 개발뿐만 아니라 개발현장의 운영·관리에 대한 환경문제의 인식도 필요하다 할 것이다.

이러한 흐름에 맞추어 비전통가스의 지속 가능한 친환경적 개발을 위한 환경서비스 기술을 중심으로 기술개발비 투자에 따른 경제성을 분석하여 보았다. 미국 천연가스개발에 따른 환경관리서비스시장진입을 목표로 하고 분석하였다. KISTEP이 정책적 의의와 경제성을 판단 기준인 예비타당성 조사사업대상을 기준으로 하였을 때, NPV는 음의 값이었고 내부수익률(IRR)도 KISTEP이 제시한 사회적 할인율 5.5%보다 낮아 투자성은 낮았다.

민감도 분석에서는 기술개발 투자액 증감에 따른 IRR의 변화는 매우 미약하여 변화를 느낄 수 없었으며, 이때 미국 천연가스 생산의 환경서비스시장 점유율은 0.048%였다. 기술의 경제적 수명을 마치는 2033년, 미국 환경서비스시장의 0.3% 진입을 목표로 한다면 연간 650억의 기술개발투자가 필요한 것으로 산출되었다. 기술개발성공률 변화에 대한 민감도는 매우 예민하였다. 약간의 증가에도 NPV와 IRR의 변화는 뚜렷하였다. 이는 기술개발의 투자는 사업화 성공률이 중요한 인자임을 보여주는 것이었다. 사회적 할인율을 기준으로 할 때 NPV가 양의 값이 되기 위해서는 기술개발성공률은 3%이상의 증가, 즉 25.5%이상 높아야 하였다.

기술개발에 대한 투자는 미래를 위한 투자이다. 당장 현재의 시장성만을 생각하는 투자보다는 미래를 위한 투자로 보아야 할 것이다. 향후 중국, 러시아 등 인접국가로서 파이프라인의 연결로 가스수송이 원활할 잠재적 시장의 진입가치를 평가하여 투자가 이루어져야 할 것이다.|As one of the big three energy resources along with oil and coal, natural gas have been expanding the proportion in energy resources because of abundant reserves and convenience for use as eco-friendly fuel, and it is also expected to continue growth. According to the fourth comprehensive plan for overseas resource development by the Korean government, the target for self-development rate of natural gas and supply rate is 45% and 39 thousand ton per day by 2019, respectively. To keep pace with the encouraging policy, domestic private energy enterprises such as SK E&S and POSCO as well as public corporations such as KOGAS and KEPCO try to expand E&P business for unconventional resources to secure natural gas resources and more stable structure of supply and demand for energy.

Nowadays, no one can deny that unconventional gas such as shale gas is getting the spotlight as the energy for next generation. Chemical industries as well as infrastructure industries such as pipeline, plant, and transport are also changing the flow of existing petrochemical industries. However, there also is growing significant environmental concern regarding adverse effects from the unique production process in shale strata. Thus, recognition of environmental problems during operation and management at development area may be essential.

The economics by the investment for environmental service technology in unconventional gas development were analyzed in the current flow of environmental industries related with shale gas. The analyses were based on the target of environmental service market entry in U.S. unconventional gas development. As a result from economic evaluation for a feasibility study on environmental management of unconventional gas by KISTEP, NPV was deduced to be negative and IRR was also lower than the social rate of discount (5.5%) by KISTEP, indicating the investment is not appropriate. Variation of IRR with changing investment for technology was too small to perceive from a sensitivity test, and the market share in environmental service market in natural gas was 0.048%. In addition, annual investment of ~59 million dollars to technology development were necessary to secure environmental service market share of 0.3% in 2033 which is economic lifespan of the technology. The sensitivity of NPV and IRR to the variation of the success rate of the technology was very high, which suggests the success rate of technology development and commercialization is an important factor. The success rate should increase by 3% to be 25.5% to have positive NPV based on the social rate of discount.

Investment on technology development should be considered as a kind of future investment rather than the present marketability. In addition, investment to technology development should be conducted with evaluation of potential market values.; As one of the big three energy resources along with oil and coal, natural gas have been expanding the proportion in energy resources because of abundant reserves and convenience for use as eco-friendly fuel, and it is also expected to continue growth. According to the fourth comprehensive plan for overseas resource development by the Korean government, the target for self-development rate of natural gas and supply rate is 45% and 39 thousand ton per day by 2019, respectively. To keep pace with the encouraging policy, domestic private energy enterprises such as SK E&S and POSCO as well as public corporations such as KOGAS and KEPCO try to expand E&P business for unconventional resources to secure natural gas resources and more stable structure of supply and demand for energy.

Nowadays, no one can deny that unconventional gas such as shale gas is getting the spotlight as the energy for next generation. Chemical industries as well as infrastructure industries such as pipeline, plant, and transport are also changing the flow of existing petrochemical industries. However, there also is growing significant environmental concern regarding adverse effects from the unique production process in shale strata. Thus, recognition of environmental problems during operation and management at development area may be essential.

The economics by the investment for environmental service technology in unconventional gas development were analyzed in the current flow of environmental industries related with shale gas. The analyses were based on the target of environmental service market entry in U.S. unconventional gas development. As a result from economic evaluation for a feasibility study on environmental management of unconventional gas by KISTEP, NPV was deduced to be negative and IRR was also lower than the social rate of discount (5.5%) by KISTEP, indicating the investment is not appropriate. Variation of IRR with changing investment for technology was too small to perceive from a sensitivity test, and the market share in environmental service market in natural gas was 0.048%. In addition, annual investment of ~59 million dollars to technology development were necessary to secure environmental service market share of 0.3% in 2033 which is economic lifespan of the technology. The sensitivity of NPV and IRR to the variation of the success rate of the technology was very high, which suggests the success rate of technology development and commercialization is an important factor. The success rate should increase by 3% to be 25.5% to have positive NPV based on the social rate of discount.

Investment on technology development should be considered as a kind of future investment rather than the present marketability. In addition, investment to technology development should be conducted with evaluation of potential market values.