독일의 지역간 인구이동에 관한 연구

Abstract

2016년은 광복 71주년과 동시에 남북분단 66주년이 되는 해로 매해 시간이 지날수록 역사적 기쁨과 슬픔의 거리는 그 간격이 멀어져만 간다. 정부는 2014년 ‘통일대박론’, 2015년 ‘한반도 국토개발마스터플랜’ 추진을 발표하며 통일을 위한 준비와 실행을 다짐하였다. 이와 같은 시점에 국토‧도시계획 분야에서는 통일 한반도의 균형 있는 국토계획에 관한 지속적인 연구가 이루어져야하고 균형국토를 위한 필수요소인 인구배분 및 이동에 관한 연구 역시 통일과 연계하여 다루어져야할 것이다. 이에 본 연구는 통일이후 지역간 인구이동에 대한 일반적인 이해를 향상시키는 것을 목적으로 한다. 독일의 통일이후 안정화에 접어드는 15년 후와 20년 후의 인구이동의 시기별 특성을 연구함으로서 통일 직후까지만 다루어져왔던 통일이후 인구 이동에 관한 연구를 연장시킬 것이다. 또한 이를 위해 지역별 효용 도출을 위한 평가지표의 개발, 지역효용과 인구이동간 상관관계 분석을 실시하여 활용한 모형의 신뢰성을 검증할 것이다. 일련의 과정을 통해 통일이후 한반도에 발생할 수 있는 인구이동에 관한 정책적 시사점을 제언하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 분석결과로, 지역효용함수를 통해 도출된 지역총효용을 실제 동기의 인구유출입 현황과 비교 검증한 결과 지역효용과 인구이동간 정의 상관관계를 보여 개발된 평가지표에 대한 신뢰를 얻었다. 또한 통일이후 중기 안정화 단계의 인구이동 요인에 환경, 교육문화, 경제 순으로 영향을 주어 경제적 안정을 바탕으로 삶의 질적 향상을 위한 지역을 선호하는 중기의 경향을 확인할 수 있었다. 시사점으로 지역효용을 실질적으로 설득력 있게 도출할 수 있는 평가지표가 개발되어 균형 있는 지역 계획수립에 보탬이 될 수 있다는 것, 통일이후 중기 안정화단계에서 경제발전과 동시에 환경개선과 교육인프라 등이 적시 구축되어야 한다는 것, 마지막으로 통일한반도의 북한지역 개발에 있어 북한주민의 지역이탈 억제 계획을 넘어서 남한주민 이주를 유발시킬만한 새로운 차원의 계획 또한 필요하다는 것이다. 향후 연구에서는 평가지표의 이념적 요인 포함, 실질이주자에 대한 설문조사, 통일이후 직후-중기-장기에 걸친 시계열분석 등의 한계점이 보완되어 통일한반도의 균형 있는 국토계획에 이바지하는 완성도 있는 연구가 되기를 기대한다.| The year 2016 is the 71st anniversary year of Korean Liberation from Japan and the 66th anniversary year of Division of Korea into South Korea and North Korea. And one cannot fail to notice that the distance of historical joy and sorrow is getting more distant as time passes. The Korean government has announced its plan for promotion of the ‘Unification Bonanza Discourse’ in 2014 and the ‘National Land Development Masterplan of Korean Peninsula in 2015, and has reassured that it will make best efforts for preparation and implementation of the Korean unification. And it seems that the time has come to conduct continuing researches on a balanced national development plan of the unified Korean peninsula in the field of national land and urban planning in linkage with researches on population distribution and movement, the two essential elements of balanced national land. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to enhance the level of our general understanding on regional movement of population between regions after the unification. Especially, in this research, an attempt will be made to extend the target research period on post-unification population movement that has been limited hitherto to right after the unification by conducting a research on characteristics of population movement in post-unification Germany by period, like after 15 years and after 20 years during the stabilization period of German unification. For the purpose, efforts will be made to develop an evaluation index that is used to derive regional utility and to verify reliability of the utilized model by conducting a correlation analysis between regional utility and population movement. The aim is to present policy implications on population movement that can occur after unification of Korean peninsular through a series of related processes. As a result of comparison and verification between total regional utility that has been derived using a regional utility function and the current state of population migration of the same period, regional utility and population movement showed a positive correlation, indicating that the evaluation index developed has credible reliability. Also, it also turned out that environment, education culture, and economy had influence on factors of population movement during the mid-term stabilization stage after unification in descending order of significance. Through this result, it was possible to identify the trend of a mid-term preference for a region that ensures an enhancement in the quality of life based on economic stability. Implications of this research can be summarized as follows: First, the development of an evaluation index that can be used to derive actual regional utility persuasively will be useful in establishing a balanced regional plan. Second, during a mid-term stabilization stage after unification, environment should be improved and educational infrastructure should be constructed at the same time along with economic development. Lastly, in developing the northern part of Korea peninsula, a new plane of plans that can induce migration of South Korean residents should also be developed that go well beyond a simple plan that can control regional secession of the North Korean residents. As for future research, it is hoped that future researches including the ideological factor of the evaluation index will complement limitations of this research by conducting questionnaire surveys of actual migrants and time series analyses that cover the mid-term and long-term periods after unification as well as the period immediately following the unification and will contribute to preparation of a balanced land development plan of the unified Korea.; The year 2016 is the 71st anniversary year of Korean Liberation from Japan and the 66th anniversary year of Division of Korea into South Korea and North Korea. And one cannot fail to notice that the distance of historical joy and sorrow is getting more distant as time passes. The Korean government has announced its plan for promotion of the ‘Unification Bonanza Discourse’ in 2014 and the ‘National Land Development Masterplan of Korean Peninsula in 2015, and has reassured that it will make best efforts for preparation and implementation of the Korean unification. And it seems that the time has come to conduct continuing researches on a balanced national development plan of the unified Korean peninsula in the field of national land and urban planning in linkage with researches on population distribution and movement, the two essential elements of balanced national land. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to enhance the level of our general understanding on regional movement of population between regions after the unification. Especially, in this research, an attempt will be made to extend the target research period on post-unification population movement that has been limited hitherto to right after the unification by conducting a research on characteristics of population movement in post-unification Germany by period, like after 15 years and after 20 years during the stabilization period of German unification. For the purpose, efforts will be made to develop an evaluation index that is used to derive regional utility and to verify reliability of the utilized model by conducting a correlation analysis between regional utility and population movement. The aim is to present policy implications on population movement that can occur after unification of Korean peninsular through a series of related processes. As a result of comparison and verification between total regional utility that has been derived using a regional utility function and the current state of population migration of the same period, regional utility and population movement showed a positive correlation, indicating that the evaluation index developed has credible reliability. Also, it also turned out that environment, education culture, and economy had influence on factors of population movement during the mid-term stabilization stage after unification in descending order of significance. Through this result, it was possible to identify the trend of a mid-term preference for a region that ensures an enhancement in the quality of life based on economic stability. Implications of this research can be summarized as follows: First, the development of an evaluation index that can be used to derive actual regional utility persuasively will be useful in establishing a balanced regional plan. Second, during a mid-term stabilization stage after unification, environment should be improved and educational infrastructure should be constructed at the same time along with economic development. Lastly, in developing the northern part of Korea peninsula, a new plane of plans that can induce migration of South Korean residents should also be developed that go well beyond a simple plan that can control regional secession of the North Korean residents. As for future research, it is hoped that future researches including the ideological factor of the evaluation index will complement limitations of this research by conducting questionnaire surveys of actual migrants and time series analyses that cover the mid-term and long-term periods after unification as well as the period immediately following the unification and will contribute to preparation of a balanced land development plan of the unified Korea.