LIQUIDITY RISK AND TIME-VARYING CORRELATION BETWEEN EQUITY AND CURRENCY RETURNS

Abstract

Using the data of 20 major Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries over time, this article documents new evidence on real equity and real currency prices: higher real returns in the home equity market relative to its foreign counterparts are generally associated with real home currency depreciation at monthly frequency, but this negative correlation breaks down or even reverses during times of relatively higher aggregate economic uncertainty or volatility. This article also argues that a long-run risks-type model with time-varying liquidity risk in stock markets can provide one plausible explanation for the time-varying correlation structure. (JEL E43, F31, G12, G15)