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Modelling of technology lifetime based on patent citation data and segmentation

Title
Modelling of technology lifetime based on patent citation data and segmentation
Author
김병훈
Keywords
technology lifetime; citation distribution analysis; patent information; communication area; technology evaluation
Issue Date
2015-03
Publisher
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN LTD
Citation
JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY, v. 66, No. 3, Page. 450-462
Abstract
Stakeholders faced with decisions on whether or not to invest in Research & Development (R&D) are increasingly in need of R&D supporting information. As such, the social demand for reliable methods to collect and assess such data continues to grow. In terms of technology appraisal and valuation, the economic life span is a particularly important factor that affects the size of the profit resulting from that technology. Here, we propose a new methodology for quantitatively estimating the technology lifetime based on patent citation data and segmentation. Using the proposed methodology, we are able to estimate the mean or median patent lifetime at both the technology group level and the individual patent level. The estimated technology lifetime may be used as an index for supporting decision-making on strategic investments related to R&D activities and for managing technology throughout its lifecycle, including R&D planning, development, and application. We have applied the proposed methodology to US patent data for the period 1976-2004 for four communications areas.
URI
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1057/jors.2013.89http://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/106016
ISSN
0160-5682; 1476-9360
DOI
10.1057/jors.2013.89
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES[E](공학대학) > INDUSTRIAL AND MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING(산업경영공학과) > Articles
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