Analyzing the Service Life Pattern of Finishing Works in Public Housing by Probabilistic Approach

Abstract

Over recent decades, it has become essential to establish preventive long-term maintenance plans for public housing developments. Also, deterministic maintenance strategies have been increasingly replaced by those based on reliability and risk, which are probabilistic. Efforts to obtain optimized long-term maintenance plans have included management of service life and prediction of service lifetime. Accordingly, the present research develops a system for various finishing work (i.e. painting work, plaster work, doors and windows, waterproofing work, interior finishing, tile work, carpentry work, and roof and drains) for public housing and analyzes the service life pattern of each component using a probabilistic approach. This research analyzed 46,201 South Korean public housing maintenance records from the last 21 years and determined the maintenance frequency distribution. The purpose of the research is to suggest efficient long-term maintenance plans using the analyzed results of service life patterns. Results from the analysis showed that each component has a different service life pattern that can be used to establish the service life and thereby schedule floating maintenance. Since the interaction between finishing works is affected by various components and parameters, the results are useful to reduce the uncertainty and risk of deterministic maintenance plans. The value of this research is to analyze the service life pattern using a probabilistic approach and to recommend how to establish an efficient maintenance system.